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    Poverty and ethnic patterns in COVID-19 excess mortality: evidence from Chile, 2020-2022
    (Oxford University Press (OUP), 2025-12-10)
    Raj Kumar Subedi
    ;
    Svenn-Erik Mamelund
    ;
    ; ;
    Elienai Joaquin-Damas
    The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted deep-rooted health inequities globally, with marginalized populations showing disproportionate disease burden. We employed Serfling regression models and multivariable analyses to estimate excess mortality across geographic, demographic, and poverty groups from 2020 to 2022 in Chile. Elderly populations (80+ years) experienced the highest excess mortality (267.35 per 10 000 population), more than 8 times higher than those under 80 years (30.80 per 10 000 population). Multivariable linear regression models showed both Indigenous proportion (coefficient = 53.66, P &amp;lt; .001) and elderly population proportion (coefficient = 5.68, P &amp;lt; .01) as the strong predictors of comuna level excess mortality. Poverty correlated significantly with excess mortality (r = 0.23, P &amp;lt; .001) but this association weakened after adjustment for other covariates in multivariable models. Excess mortality peaked in 2021 rather than in 2020 for most groups, with males initially experiencing higher rates during early pandemic waves. Spatial analyses revealed statistically significant clustering (Moran’s I = 0.119, P &amp;lt; .001) with identifiable hotspots in northern Chile and parts of the south. These findings indicated persistent mortality disparities by age and Indigenous status, independent of poverty, and highlight the urgent need for equity-focused pandemic preparedness. An effective pandemic response should integrate biomedical measures, such as vaccination, with culturally grounded strategies that address structural barriers and the broader social determinants of health.</jats:p>
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    Socioeconomic inequalities in Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic: A regional analysis of income poverty
    (Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2025-05-07) ;
    Sushma Dahal
    ;
    ; ;
    Svenn-Erik Mamelund
    The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented economic crisis, intensifying poverty levels in Latin America, particularly in Chile. This study examines the short- and long-term socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 on income poverty in Chile, focusing on regional disparities, rurality, ethnicity, educational attainment, and immigration. Using data from the Chile National Socioeconomic Characterization Survey (CASEN) for 2017, 2020, and 2022, we analyzed poverty trends across the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods. We employed spatial clustering techniques with Local Moran’s I to detect poverty hotspots and applied logistic regression models to identify key sociodemographic factors associated with these hotspots. Our results reveal stark regional disparities, with disproportionately higher poverty rates among rural populations, Indigenous communities, and individuals with lower education levels or immigrant backgrounds. The proportion of individuals in poverty hotspots rose from 6.8% in 2017 to 8.6% in 2020, before slightly declining to 7.7% in 2022. Although emergency monetary subsidies helped reduce overall poverty from 10.8% in 2020 to 6.5% in 2022, these measures were insufficient to address deep-rooted structural inequalities. Our findings underscore the urgent need for targeted, long-term policies that go beyond temporary financial assistance and tackle systemic disparities linked to rurality, ethnicity, education, and immigration. Such measures are essential for achieving sustainable poverty reduction and fostering inclusive economic growth in Chile.
    Scopus© Citations 1  1
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      2Scopus© Citations 38
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    Transmission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Chile, March-October, 2020
    (2021)
    Amna Tariq
    ;
    Eduardo A. Undurraga
    ;
    ;
    Katia Vogt-Geisse
    ;
    Ruiyan Luo
    <jats:p>Since the detection of the first case of COVID-19 in Chile on March 3<jats:sup>rd</jats:sup>, 2020, a total of 513,188 cases, including ~14,302 deaths have been reported in Chile as of November 2<jats:sup>nd</jats:sup>, 2020. Here, we estimate the reproduction number throughout the epidemic in Chile and study the effectiveness of control interventions especially the effectiveness of lockdowns by conducting short-term forecasts based on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Chile’s incidence curve displays early sub-exponential growth dynamics with the deceleration of growth parameter,<jats:italic>p</jats:italic>, estimated at 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7, 0.8) and the reproduction number,<jats:italic>R</jats:italic>, estimated at 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6, 1.9). Our findings indicate that the control measures at the start of the epidemic significantly slowed down the spread of the virus. However, the relaxation of restrictions and spread of the virus in low-income neighborhoods in May led to a new surge of infections, followed by the reimposition of lockdowns in Greater Santiago and other municipalities. These measures have decelerated the virus spread with<jats:italic>R</jats:italic>estimated at ~0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.98) as of November 2<jats:sup>nd</jats:sup>, 2020. The early sub-exponential growth trend (<jats:italic>p</jats:italic>~0.8) of the COVID-19 epidemic transformed into a linear growth trend (<jats:italic>p</jats:italic>~0.5) as of July 7<jats:sup>th</jats:sup>, 2020, after the reimposition of lockdowns. While the broad scale social distancing interventions have slowed the virus spread, the number of new COVID-19 cases continue to accrue, underscoring the need for persistent social distancing and active case detection and isolation efforts to maintain the epidemic under control.</jats:p>
    Scopus© Citations 45  1