Estimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile
Journal
Nature Communications
ISSN
2041-1723
Date Issued
2021
Author(s)
Nicolò Gozzi
Michele Tizzoni
Matteo Chinazzi
Alessandro Vespignani
Nicola Perra
Type
Resource Types::text::journal::journal article
URL Institutional Repository
Abstract
We study the spatio-temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Santiago de Chile using anonymized mobile phone data from 1.4 million users, 22% of the whole population in the area, characterizing the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the epidemic dynamics. We integrate these data into a mechanistic epidemic model calibrated on surveillance data. As of August 1, 2020, we estimate a detection rate of 102 cases per 1000 infections (90% CI: [95–112 per 1000]). We show that the introduction of a full lockdown on May 15, 2020, while causing a modest additional decrease in mobility and contacts with respect to previous NPIs, was decisive in bringing the epidemic under control, highlighting the importance of a timely governmental response to COVID-19 outbreaks. We find that the impact of NPIs on individuals’ mobility correlates with the Human Development Index of comunas in the city. Indeed, more developed and wealthier areas became more isolated after government interventions and experienced a significantly lower burden of the pandemic. The heterogeneity of COVID-19 impact raises important issues in the implementation of NPIs and highlights the challenges that communities affected by systemic health and social inequalities face adapting their behaviors during an epidemic.
Subjects
sars-cov-2
;
algorithms
;
chile
;
communicable disease control
;
covid-19
;
disease transmission, infectious
;
humans
;
incidence
;
models, theoretical
;
pandemics
;
sars-cov-2
;
socioeconomic factors
;
time factors
;
chile
;
metropolitana
;
santiago [metropolitana]
;
sars coronavirus
;
covid-19
;
disease transmission
;
epidemic
;
estimation method
;
government
;
human development index
;
mobile phone
;
severe acute respiratory syndrome
;
spatiotemporal analysis
;
adult
;
age distribution
;
article
;
basic reproduction number
;
behavior change
;
case fatality rate
;
comparative study
;
controlled study
;
coronavirus disease 2019
;
denmark
;
disease burden
;
epidemic
;
health disparity
;
health status
;
human
;
intensive care unit
;
major clinical study
;
quarantine
;
sensitivity analysis
;
seroprevalence
;
social distancing
;
spatiotemporal analysis
;
walking difficulty
;
algorithm
;
chile
;
communicable disease control
;
disease transmission
;
epidemiology
;
incidence
;
isolation and purification
;
pandemic
;
physiology
;
prevention and control
;
procedures
;
socioeconomics
;
theoretical model
;
time factor
;
virology