Project Title
Socio-Hydrological Agent-Based Modeling to Assess Future Water Conflicts at Basin Scale
Partner Organisations
University of Concepción
Internal ID
1230312
Principal Investigator
Mario Fernando Lillo Saavedra
Type
basic research
Status
VIGENTE
Start Date
2023
End Date
2027
Investigators
Somos-valenzuela Marcelo
MARCELA SALGADO VARGAS
Organisations
Universidad de La Frontera
University of Concepción

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    Item type:Publication,
    Socio-Hydrological Agent-Based Modeling as a Framework for Analyzing Conflicts Within Water User Organizations
    (2024)
    Mario Lillo-Saavedra
    ;
    Pablo Velásquez-Cisterna
    ;
    Ángel García-Pedrero
    ;
    Marcela Salgado-Vargas
    ;
    RIVERA SALAZAR, DIEGO ANDRÉS  
    Water resource management in agriculture faces complex challenges due to increasing scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, and the intensification of conflicts among various user groups. This study addresses the issue of predicting and managing these conflicts in the Longaví River Basin, Chile, by considering the intricate interactions between hydrological, social, and economic factors. A socio-hydrological agent-based model (SHABM) was developed, integrating hydrological, economic, and behavioral data. The methodology combined fieldwork with computational modeling, characterizing three types of agents (selfish, neutral, and cooperative) and simulating scenarios with varying levels of water availability and oversight across three water user organizations (WUOs). The key findings revealed that (1) selfish agents are more likely to disregard irrigation schedules under conditions of scarcity and low supervision; (2) high supervision (90%) significantly reduces conflicts; (3) water scarcity exacerbates non-cooperative behaviors; (4) high-risk conflict areas can be identified; and (5) behavioral patterns stabilize after the third year of simulation. This work demonstrates the potential of SHABM as a decision-making tool in water management, enabling the proactive identification of conflict-prone areas and the evaluation of management strategies.
    Scopus© Citations 1  7