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Optimization of Water and Land Allocation in Fruit Orchards over a 20-Year Period
(MDPI AG, 2024-12-24)
Luciano Quezada
;
Eduardo Holzapfel
;
Mathias Kuschel-Otárola
;
Mario Lillo-Saavedra
;
RIVERA SALAZAR, DIEGO ANDRÉS
<jats:p>This study proposes a nonlinear programming model for the optimization of water and land allocation in a 1000 ha orchard over a 20-year period to maximize farmers’ net profits. Different scenarios were evaluated, including equitable and unrestricted land allocation, and the risks associated with fruit production were considered. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis that focused on the variability of labor and water availability was conducted. The results reveal that with equitable land allocations and no constraints on the cultivated area, cherry emerges as the most profitable crop, although there are large risks associated with its price volatility. The introduction of risk and land allocation constraints highlights the importance of crop diversification in mitigating economic risks. A sensitivity analysis indicated that reductions in water and labor availability significantly affect the optimal cropping pattern of an orchard, suggesting that the efficient and adaptive management of resources is required. The proposed optimal cropping pattern maintains the economic viability of the orchard even with 70% and 24% reductions in water and labor, respectively. This approach underscores the importance of implementing resilient and sustainable agricultural strategies to ensure food security and increase economic stability in the face of changing climatic and labor conditions.</jats:p>
Scopus© Citations 5 2
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Socio-Hydrological Agent-Based Modeling as a Framework for Analyzing Conflicts Within Water User Organizations
(2024)
Mario Lillo-Saavedra
;
Pablo Velásquez-Cisterna
;
Ángel García-Pedrero
;
Marcela Salgado-Vargas
;
RIVERA SALAZAR, DIEGO ANDRÉS
Water resource management in agriculture faces complex challenges due to increasing scarcity, exacerbated by climate change, and the intensification of conflicts among various user groups. This study addresses the issue of predicting and managing these conflicts in the Longaví River Basin, Chile, by considering the intricate interactions between hydrological, social, and economic factors. A socio-hydrological agent-based model (SHABM) was developed, integrating hydrological, economic, and behavioral data. The methodology combined fieldwork with computational modeling, characterizing three types of agents (selfish, neutral, and cooperative) and simulating scenarios with varying levels of water availability and oversight across three water user organizations (WUOs). The key findings revealed that (1) selfish agents are more likely to disregard irrigation schedules under conditions of scarcity and low supervision; (2) high supervision (90%) significantly reduces conflicts; (3) water scarcity exacerbates non-cooperative behaviors; (4) high-risk conflict areas can be identified; and (5) behavioral patterns stabilize after the third year of simulation. This work demonstrates the potential of SHABM as a decision-making tool in water management, enabling the proactive identification of conflict-prone areas and the evaluation of management strategies.
7Scopus© Citations 5
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Ex Post Analysis of Water Supply Demand in an Agricultural Basin by Multi-Source Data Integration
(2021)
Mario Lillo-Saavedra
;
Viviana Gavilán
;
Angel García-Pedrero
;
Consuelo Gonzalo-Martín
;
Felipe de la Hoz
In this work, we present a new methodology integrating data from multiple sources, such as observations from the Landsat-8 (L8) and Sentinel-2 (S2) satellites, with information gathered in field campaigns and information derived from different public databases, in order to characterize the water demand of crops (potential and estimated) in a spatially and temporally distributed manner. This methodology is applied to a case study corresponding to the basin of the Longaví River, located in south-central Chile. Potential and estimated demands, aggregated at different spatio-temporal scales, are compared to the streamflow of the Longaví River, as well as extractions from the groundwater system. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the availability of spatio-temporal information on the water availability and demand pairing allows us to close the water gap—i.e., the difference between supply and demand—allowing for better management of water resources in a watershed.
1Scopus© Citations 5 2

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